Description of potential development domains for Humidtropics—A CGIAR Research Program

It is extremely challenging to formulate and evaluate agricultural development strategies for regions as large and diverse as proposed in the Action Areas, and it will require multiple perspectives and thoughtful simplifications (Omamo et al. 2006). Empirical studies in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda (e.g. Pender et al. 1999; Pender et al. 2004; Ehui and Pender 2005) suggest that interaction of the three socio-economic and biophysical layers—population density, agricultural potential and market access—provide good explanatory power in predicting the type of agricultural enterprises and development pathways encountered in different rural communities, as the layers are strongly related to the feasibility and attractiveness of specific development and livelihood strategies (Wood et al. 1999). Omamo et al. (2006) used for East and Central Africa (ECA) GIS tools and databases to gain a better appreciation of the regional patterns of agriculture and of agricultural development challenges and opportunities. The GIS analysis disaggregates the region into geographical units, called ‘development domains’, in which similar agricultural development problems or opportunities are likely to occur, based on the spatial layers population density, agricultural potential and market access. The breakdown is done by classifying each of the three factors into two values: high or low. In the proposal for the CGIAR Research Program on Integrated Systems for the Humid Tropics an example is given for ECA, based on the Nairobi 2012 workshop. Stratification here is by domain at Field Site level with a different form of stratification used at the Action Site level (‘farming system’). The development domains in this example are defined using consistent data and criteria across the region, thus helping diagnose development constraints and formulate and evaluate strategic intervention options in comparable ways. These development domains permit consideration of the following issues: Where are those geographic areas within and across countries in ECA in which development problems and opportunities are likely to be most similar? Where will specific types of development policies, investments, livelihood options and technologies likely be most effective? For established developmental successes in any given location in ECA, where can similar conditions be found in the region

Supporting the vulnerable: Increasing adaptive capacities of agropastoralists to climate change in West and southern Africa using a transdisciplinary research approach

The world’s climate is changing rapidly and Africa will be severely affected by this, not only because of the effects on ecosystems but also because of the low adaptive capacity of communities due to poverty and lack of infrastructure, services, and appropriate policies to support adaptation strategies. A large share of Africa’s poor are dependent on livestock for some part of their livelihoods, most of these living in smallholder, rainfed mixed systems and pastoral systems, where livestock play a key role as assets providing multiple economic, social, and risk management functions. The goal of this transdisciplinary project is to increase the adaptive capacity of agropastoralists, who are one of the most vulnerable groups in Africa, to climate change and variability. The purpose of this project is to co-generate methods, information and solutions between local communities, local and international scientists, policymakers and other actors involved in climate change and adaptation programs, for coping mechanisms and adapting strategies to climate change and variability in West and Southern Africa, and more particularly in Mali and Mozambique. To quantify the magnitudes of the effects of climate variability and change on the productivity of rangelands, crops and livestock and how these changes affect agropastoralists, spatial data layers were created, collated and documented related to climate variability and change, production systems, primary production, vulnerability and feed resources. First a generalized downscaling and data generation method was used to take the outputs of a General Circulation Models (GCM) to describe some future climatology and to allow the stochastic generation of daily weather data that are to some extent characteristic of this future climatology, that can then be used to drive impact models that require daily (or otherwise aggregated) weather data. Secondly a global livestock production system classification scheme that integrates the notions of crop and livestock interactions with agro-ecological zones was extended by including indicators of the major crops grown in the mixed crop–livestock areas. Next a dynamic global vegetation crop model was used for simulating crop and rangeland yields, water and carbon fluxes and water productivities under different climate and land use scenarios. Areas of reduced primary productivity were identified and characterized and overlaid with information on poverty and livelihoods, to identify hotspots where productivity reductions may have serious repercussions on smallholders’ wellbeing. Communities have been adapting to change and variability for centuries. Household surveys and in-depth narrative analyses were conducted with agropastoral communities to document, synthesise and help disseminate their past and present coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies, particularly those related to livestock, for which there is relatively little information. Several institutions are already working on promoting adaptation strategies in West and Southern Africa. We collated and documented the strategies promoted, and together with the indigenous information provided by agropastoralist communities we initiated dialogues between the different stakeholders to jointly prioritize adaptation strategies, to select a few for pilot testing. By doing this we can provide active learning opportunities and promote the co-creation of adaptation options between different stakeholders. Implementation and dissemination of technical adaptation options often fails due to the lack of support from the policy environment. Together with key policymaking institutions and regional policymaking bodies we identified and promoted policy entry points to support the implementation of priority adaptation strategies, and we identified policy mechanisms that in themselves are an appropriate intervention to allow agropastoralists to buffer the effects of climate variability and change

The livestock-climate-poverty nexus: A discussion paper on ILRI research in relation to climate change

Climate change will have severe impacts in many parts of the tropics and subtropics. Despite the importance of livestock to poor people and the magnitude of the changes that are likely to befall livestock systems, the intersection of climate change and livestock is a relatively neglected research area. Little is known about the interactions of climate and increasing climate variability with other drivers of change in livestock systems and in broader development trends. Evidence is being assembled that the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of household responses may be very large. While opportunities may exist for some households to take advantage of more conducive rangeland and cropping conditions, for example, the changes projected will pose very serious problems for many other households. Furthermore, ruminant livestock themselves have important impacts on climate, through the emission of methane and through the land-use change that may be brought about by livestock keepers. Given that climate change is now being seen as a key development challenge, and that a very large global community is already working on climate-change-related issues, the CGIAR in general, and ILRI in particular, need to consider carefully how the research agenda might be adjusted to respond. While the global environmental change community is very large, ILRI as a small institute can still contribute effectively to the climate change / development debate by focusing on a few key niches, through alliances with carefully chosen collaborators. This discussion paper is an attempt to assemble and summarise relevant information concerning climate change, livestock and development, and to identify what these key niches might be. The report briefly summarises what is known about climate change and its effects on agroecosystems, and summarises the current limits to prediction. It reviews the literature on climate change impacts on livestock and livestock impacts on climate, and thus sets out to answer the question, what do we know? Knowledge and data gaps are then identified, and a synthesis presented in relation to our clients and stakeholders and to alternative providers of knowledge and information. The paper ends by looking at the questions, what do we not know, and what should we do about it, with a discussion of recommendations for ILRI activities in the area, and the strategic alliances needed, some of which already exist

Climate change: do we know how it will affect smallholder livestock farmers?

What is known about the likely impacts of climate change on resource-poor livestock keepers in the developing world? Relatively little, and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) are working to improve this knowledge. This Brief outlines how a group of scientists at ILRI reviewed some elements of the complex relationship between livestock and climate change in developing countries with a forward-looking approach. The objective was to help set research priorities: to inform the debate as to what research for development organizations such as ILRI could and should be doing in the area of climate change work that could add value to the large amounts of work already being carried out by the Global Change community on cropping systems and natural resources management. Originally designed to guide ILRI’s research on climate change, this work has had a broader impact by informing the investment strategies of several other research-for-development organizations, including donors

Kenya adaptation to climate change in the arid lands: anticipating, adapting to and coping with climate risks in Kenya - operational recommendations for KACCAL

Years of concerted activism to bring awareness of climate change and its consequences to the fore of global concerns are finally yielding dividends. Until recently, most climate change activity focused on medium- to long-term projections regarding the nature and trajectory of change processes. With the uncertainties inherent in long-term climate projections and the difficulty of building political and economic momentum from hypothetical future scenarios, progress was slow. The recent past has, however, resulted in a drastic increase in extreme climate events across the globe that has wreaked untold humanitarian and economic havoc. The costly present day manifestations of climate change have catapulted climate concerns to the forefront of the global arena. The recent high-level event convened by the Secretary General of the United Nations to address the leadership challenge of climate change and build momentum for climate change talks (Bali, Indonesia, December 2007) is a clear indication that the urgency of climate change has fostered the degree of serious commitment it requires from the global agenda. Whatever its impacts, it is widely acknowledged that poor communities, already vulnerable to a suite of existing risks and endowed with meagre resources, will be the most adversely affected as climate change is superimposed on their already tenuous situation. In recognition of the need to help vulnerable populations in developing countries adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, the Global Environment Facility (GEF), in conjunction with its partners, funds programmes aimed at reducing the vulnerability of countries to the impacts of climate change and helps them build adaptive capacity. The Kenya Adaptation to Climate Change in the Arid Lands (KACCAL) project is one such initiative supported in conjunction with the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). About 80% of Kenya is arid or semi-arid and the main livelihood activities in these areas are pastoral, agropastoral and subsistence agriculture. Currently, these populations are among the poorest in Kenya, suffer from a weak natural resource base, are negatively affected by socio-economic and demographic trends that see a growing population depending on diminishing rangelands, and are relatively marginalized from the growing economy. Add to this the impacts of climate change, of which the recent severe and extended droughts of 2001, 2004–06 and the widespread flooding in 2007 are an early signal, and the livelihood threats to the communities of Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) are clear and present

The influence of current and future climate-induced risk on the agricultural sector in East and Central Africa: Sensitizing the ASARECA strategic plan to climate change

Rainfed agriculture is and will remain the dominant source of staple food production for the majority of the rural poor in Eastern and Central Africa (ECA). It is clear that larger investments in agriculture by a broad range of stakeholders will be required if this sector is to meet the food security requirements of tomorrow’s Africa. Many factors contribute to the current low levels of investment, but production uncertainty associated with between- and within-season rainfall variability remains a fundamental constraint to many investors who often overestimate the impact of climate induced uncertainty. The climate of Africa is warmer than it was 100 years ago. Model-based predictions of future greenhouse gas-induced climate change for the continent clearly suggest that this warming will continue and, in most scenarios, accelerate. The projections for rainfall are less uniform; large regional differences exist in rainfall variability. However, there is likely to be an increase in annual mean precipitation in East Africa